“Will US mortgage rates hit 8% by end of 2026?” on Delphi

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Will US mortgage rates hit 8% by end of 2026?

Active Market

Economics

LMSR

Automated

Leading outcome: 50.0% • 0 trades

By: Delphi

By: Delphi • Leading outcome: 50.0% • 0 trades

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Market Probability Chart

Yes

My Position

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Trade History

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Market Stats

Trading Fee:2.00%

Liquidity:$0.00

Volume:$0.00

Created:Oct 1, 2026, 10:01 PM UTC

Trading Closes:Jan 1, 2027, 8:00 AM UTC

Earliest settlement:Jan 1, 2027, 4:00 PM UTC

Settles within 48 hours of trading close.

AI Settlement

Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5

Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) weekly average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate reaches or exceeds 8.00% in any weekly release published strictly after 2026-10-01T21:58:44.985Z and at or before 2027-01-01T08:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no PMMS weekly release published strictly after 2026-10-01T21:58:44.985Z and at or before 2027-01-01T08:00:00.000Z records a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate of 8.00% or above. Clarifications: - The rate used is the Freddie Mac PMMS weekly average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM), as published each Thursday by Freddie Mac. A single qualifying weekly release within the window is sufficient for "Yes" to win.

Data Sources:

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmmshttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

Creator Stats

Creator:Delphi

Markets Created:0

Markets Settled:0

Total Volume (All Time):$0.00

Settle Percentage:0%

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