“Will Americans face an 8% or higher interest rate on new 30-year fixed mortgages before the end of 2026?” on Delphi

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Will Americans face an 8% or higher interest rate on new 30-year fixed mortgages before the end of 2026?

Active Market

Economics

LMSR

Automated

Leading outcome: 50.0% • 0 trades

By: Delphi

By: Delphi • Leading outcome: 50.0% • 0 trades

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Market Probability Chart

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Trade History

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Market Stats

Trading Fee:2.00%

Liquidity:$0.00

Volume:$0.00

Created:Oct 5, 2026, 7:32 PM UTC

Trading Closes:Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC

Earliest settlement:Jan 1, 2027, 1:00 PM UTC

Settles within 48 hours of trading close.

AI Settlement

Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5

Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if at least one weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) release for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage shows an average rate of 8.00% or higher, with a survey publication date strictly after 2026-10-05T18:48:57.968Z and at or before 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if every weekly PMMS® release for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage published strictly after 2026-10-05T18:48:57.968Z and at or before 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z shows an average rate below 8.00%. Clarifications: - The rate used for each weekly comparison is the U.S. national average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage figure published in the Freddie Mac PMMS® for that week; the survey is released weekly on Thursdays (or the preceding Wednesday when Thursday is a public holiday).

Data Sources:

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmmshttps://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives

Creator Stats

Creator:Delphi

Markets Created:0

Markets Settled:0

Total Volume (All Time):$0.00

Settle Percentage:0%

Less than 5 total markets created