This market was automatically settled Jul 30, 2026, 4:19 AM UTC
Will Microsoft beat the Wall Street consensus GAAP EPS estimate for Q4 FY2026 on July 29, 2026?
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<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user wants to know if Microsoft beat the Wall Street consensus GAAP EPS estimate for Q4 FY2026, which was reported on July 29, 2026. The market closed on July 29 at 20:00 UTC, and the current time is July 30 at 04:04 UTC. The resolution criteria are pretty specific: it's a "Yes" if the actual GAAP EPS is strictly higher than the consensus, and "No" if it's equal or lower. Both resolvers agree on the answer here. Resolver 1 states that Microsoft's GAAP diluted EPS was $4.81, which is higher than the consensus estimates of around $4.21 to $4.24. They also mention the non-GAAP EPS of $4.74, which also beats the adjusted consensus. Resolver 2 confirms the same numbers, noting the GAAP EPS is $4.81 and the consensus is $4.24 from FactSet. They also check that even if there's some confusion between GAAP and non-GAAP, the non-GAAP figure still beats the adjusted estimate. The key points here are that both resolvers have credible sources: Microsoft's official earnings release and FactSet via AP News. The resolution criteria specify using GAAP, and the official report from Microsoft clearly states the GAAP EPS. The consensus is also properly sourced from a major financial data provider (FactSet), so their $4.24 is the right number. Since $4.81 is indeed higher than $4.24, the answer is "Yes". I don't see any conflicting information between the two resolvers. Both present the same figures from reliable sources. Even if there was a potential mix-up between GAAP and non-GAAP, the non-GAAP number still beats the adjusted consensus. There's no mention of any data provider being unavailable or any event not concluded. The event clearly happened on July 29, and the data is publicly available. Therefore, the market resolves to "Yes". </think> ANSWER: Yes
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Microsoft's reported GAAP diluted EPS for Q4 fiscal year 2026, as disclosed in the official earnings release on July 29, 2026, strictly exceeds the Wall Street consensus GAAP EPS estimate at the time of the report (as published by a major financial data provider such as Bloomberg, FactSet, or Visible Alpha — using the GAAP EPS consensus, not the non-GAAP / adjusted consensus). - "No": Wins if Microsoft's reported GAAP diluted EPS for Q4 fiscal year 2026, as disclosed in the official earnings release on July 29, 2026, equals or falls below the Wall Street consensus GAAP EPS estimate at the time of the report. Clarifications: - The EPS figure used for comparison is GAAP diluted EPS as reported in Microsoft's official press release for Q4 FY2026. - The consensus EPS figure is the analyst consensus GAAP EPS estimate (not non-GAAP / adjusted) as published by a major financial data provider (e.g., Bloomberg, FactSet, or Visible Alpha) at or immediately before market close on July 29, 2026, prior to the earnings release. - If the chosen data provider does not separately publish a GAAP consensus, the non-GAAP consensus may be used provided both the reported and consensus figures are on the same non-GAAP basis.
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