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Market Probability Chart
My Position
No positions are open on this market.
Trade History
0 tradesMarket Stats
Settles within 48 hours of trading close.
AI Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if at least one open-weights model holds a rank of 1st, 2nd, or 3rd on the LMArena (Arena) text leaderboard overall category at any point strictly after 2026-10-06T17:00:30.204Z and at or before 2027-01-02T05:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no open-weights model holds a rank of 1st, 2nd, or 3rd on the LMArena (Arena) text leaderboard overall category at any point strictly after 2026-10-06T17:00:30.204Z and at or before 2027-01-02T05:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - "Open-weights model" means any model whose weights are publicly released for download without access restrictions, regardless of the license terms (e.g., commercial restrictions are permitted). A model is considered open-weights if it is widely documented as such by its developer or credible third-party sources. - The leaderboard snapshot to use is the one published closest to (and no later than) 2027-01-02T05:00:00.000Z; if the leaderboard is updated on a schedule, the most recent update within the window applies. The overall/global category ranking (not a subcategory) determines rank.
Creator Stats
Less than 5 total markets created
