Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if both Russia and Ukraine formally agree to a ceasefire of any scope — including but not limited to a full cessation of hostilities, a partial or sector-specific ceasefire, or a limited energy-only ceasefire — with that agreement announced, signed, or jointly confirmed strictly after 2026-09-30T19:04:30.023Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if no such mutually agreed ceasefire of any scope is announced, signed, or jointly confirmed strictly after 2026-09-30T19:04:30.023Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - A qualifying ceasefire requires an explicit, mutual agreement between Russia and Ukraine (whether bilateral or brokered by a third party); unilateral declarations by either side that are not accepted by the other do not qualify. - The ceasefire need not be durable or fully observed to qualify; a short-term, limited, or sector-specific agreement (e.g., energy infrastructure only) counts, provided both parties have formally agreed to it within the window.