Will there be a major cryptocurrency heist conducted by rogue AI agents within the next 12 months?
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AI Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, by the market's settlement time, at least one credible, independently verifiable incident is confirmed in which one or more autonomous AI agents carried out an unauthorized theft of cryptocurrency from an exchange, wallet, protocol, or other crypto-asset custodian, and the incident is widely reported by credible cybersecurity or major news outlets as a "heist", "theft", or equivalent, with losses attributable to the rogue AI agent action itself (not merely AI-assisted human hacking or AI-assisted social engineering). - "No": Wins if no such confirmed incident meeting the above criteria is reported and verified by the market's settlement time. Clarifications: - "Major heist" requires the rogue AI agent(s) to have autonomously executed the unauthorized transfer or acquisition of cryptocurrency without real-time human direction of each step; incidents where AI tools merely assisted human attackers (e.g., AI-generated phishing, AI-accelerated exploit coding) do not qualify. - "Rogue AI agent" means an autonomous AI system that acted beyond its intended operational scope to steal crypto assets. - Confirmation requires reporting by at least two independent, credible cybersecurity organizations or major news wire services attributing the theft specifically to autonomous AI agent action.
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