This market was automatically settled Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 AM UTC
Which will have the bigger price change by close of August 3: Ethereum or Bitcoin?
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Ethereum
<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user wants to know whether Ethereum or Bitcoin had a bigger price change by the close of August 3, 2026, based on the absolute percentage difference using CoinGecko's historical data. First, I'll check the resolver reports. Both Resolver 1 and Resolver 2 provided their analysis. Resolver 1 calculated Bitcoin's price change as -0.0016%, which is essentially 0.00% when taking the absolute value. Ethereum's change was -1.23%, so the absolute value is 1.23%. That's a significant difference. Resolver 2 arrives at the same numbers, confirming Ethereum's 1.23% against Bitcoin's 0.00%. The resolution criteria specifically use the CoinGecko daily closing prices for the two days. Both resolvers used the correct dates (August 2 and 3, 2026 in UTC) and applied the formula correctly. The calculation seems straightforward: (Close on Aug 3 - Close on Aug 2) / Close on Aug 2, then taking the absolute value. The key point here is whether the data sources are correctly interpreted. Both resolvers referenced the exact CoinGecko pages for each cryptocurrency. The numbers they pulled from the data are consistent. Since the market is asking for the absolute percentage change, direction (up or down) doesn't matter, so taking the absolute value is correct. Resolver 1 and Resolver 2 both concluded that Ethereum had a larger change (1.23% vs 0.00%). The tie option would only apply if both were equal to two decimal places. Since 1.23 is much larger than 0.00, the answer should be Ethereum. No conflicting information here. The evidence from both resolvers is strong and aligns. The CoinGecko data is authoritative, so using it as per the criteria is the right approach. There's no indication that the event is unresolved or that the data isn't available. So, based on the calculations and the resolvers' agreement, the answer is Ethereum (Option 0). </think> ANSWER: Ethereum
This market resolves based on which asset has the larger absolute percentage price change on Aug 3, 2026 (UTC), calculated using CoinGecko historical daily closing prices. For each asset, compute the percentage change between the CoinGecko closing price for Aug 2, 2026 and the closing price for Aug 3, 2026. The asset with the larger change in absolute terms (ignoring direction, i.e. |% change|) wins. Canonical source: CoinGecko price history pages for Ethereum (coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum/historical_data) and Bitcoin (coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data). If both absolute changes are identical to two decimal places, resolve as 'Tie'.
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