This market was automatically settled Aug 7, 2026, 8:31 PM UTC
Will the July US jobs report beat expectations (85K+)?
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<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user is asking if the July US jobs report will beat expectations by showing a nonfarm payrolls figure of 85,000 or more. The resolution criteria specify that it should be based on the BLS Employment Situation release on August 7, 2026. If the number is 85k or above, it's a YES, else NO. Now, checking the resolver reports. Both Resolver 1 and Resolver 2 are in agreement here. Resolver 1 states that the BLS report from August 7 shows nonfarm payrolls at -23,000, citing sources like Quartz and Trading Economics. That's way below the 85k threshold, so they answer 1 (No). Resolver 2 also confirms that the BLS released the data on August 7, quoting the exact text from the report which mentions a -23k figure. They too conclude that the market resolves NO because the figure is below 85k. Both resolvers provided solid evidence from the BLS and other credible sources, and their reasoning aligns. There's no conflicting information here. The key points are that the report was released on the correct date and the figure was indeed -23,000. Since both resolvers agree and the evidence supports this, the answer should be 1 (No). No need to consider other factors like time zones or delays since the report was on time. Everything lines up, so the clear answer is NO. </think> ANSWER: No
Resolves YES if the headline nonfarm payrolls figure for July 2026, as first published in the BLS Employment Situation release on August 7, 2026 (bls.gov), is 85,000 or greater. Resolves NO if below 85,000. Only the initial headline print counts; later revisions are ignored. If the release is postponed past August 10, 2026, the market resolves based on the figure when published.
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