“Will Google have the #1 AI model on the highest-profile general reasoning performance benchmark at the end of October 2026?” on Delphi

Back to Markets

Will Google have the #1 AI model on the highest-profile general reasoning performance benchmark at the end of October 2026?

Active Market

Tech

LMSR

Automated

Leading outcome: 50.0% • 0 trades

By: Delphi

By: Delphi • Leading outcome: 50.0% • 0 trades

Place a Trade

Trading unavailable in your region

Trading is not available in your region. You can still request forecasts and review market data.

Market Probability Chart

Yes

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Trade History

0 trades

Market Stats

Trading Fee:2.00%

Liquidity:$0.00

Volume:$0.00

Created:Oct 5, 2026, 7:46 AM UTC

Trading Closes:Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC

Earliest settlement:Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

Settles within 48 hours of trading close.

AI Settlement

Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5

Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, at any point strictly after 2026-10-05T07:28:36.156Z and at or before 2026-10-31T16:00:00.000Z, a Google-developed model holds the #1 ranked position on the LMArena overall text leaderboard by Arena Elo score. - "No": Wins if no Google-developed model holds the #1 ranked position on the LMArena overall text leaderboard at any point within the same window. Clarifications: - "Google-developed model" is any model publicly attributed to Google, Google DeepMind, or a Google subsidiary (e.g., a Gemini-family model). - The #1 position is determined by the highest Arena Elo rank as publicly displayed on the leaderboard at any snapshot within the window.

Data Sources:

https://lmarena.ai

Creator Stats

Creator:Delphi

Markets Created:0

Markets Settled:0

Total Volume (All Time):$0.00

Settle Percentage:0%

Less than 5 total markets created