This market was automatically settled Oct 5, 2026, 7:22 AM UTC
Will London's temperature reach more than 22°C on Oct 4, 2026?
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<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user is asking if London's temperature will reach more than 22°C on October 4, 2026. The resolution criteria are pretty specific—yes if the max temperature exceeds 22°C at any point after October 3 at 23:00 UTC up to and including October 4 at 23:00 UTC. The no option is if it doesn't exceed that during the same interval. Now, the two resolvers both agree on the answer. Let me check their reports. Resolver 1 says they checked the hourly data in that window and found the temperature peaked at 22.2°C at 16:00Z and 17:00Z on Oct 4. They used the openmeteo_get_recent data, which they note is preliminary model analysis, but the peak is clearly above 22°C. Resolver 2 also looked at the same data, confirming the 22.2°C readings and clarified that the Open-Meteo's recent hourly temperature_2m data is the right source here. They both point to the same times and temperatures. Wait, the resolution criteria mention using the maximum temperature recorded during that interval. Both resolvers found that the temperature reached 22.2°C, which is above 22°C. Since the criteria require the temperature to be strictly greater than 22°C, those readings qualify. The resolvers both agree on this, and they're using the same data sources, though Resolver 1 mentions the data is preliminary. But according to the guidelines, even if the data is preliminary, if it's authoritative and credible, it's acceptable. The Timing rules also say that evidence after market close is okay, so even though the market closed at 23:00 on the 4th, the data from 16:00 and 17:00 on that day is well within the time frame. I don't see any conflicting evidence here. Both resolvers independently reached the same conclusion with consistent data. Since they both point to the temperature exceeding the threshold, and the criteria are met, the answer should be "Yes", which is option 0. There's no indication that the event hasn't concluded either since we have current time as 2026-10-05, which is after the resolution window. All evidence is in, and the resolvers have analyzed it correctly. No UNKNOWN case here. </think> ANSWER: Yes
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the maximum air temperature recorded at or near London (51.51°N, 0.13°W) exceeds 22°C at any point strictly after 2026-10-03T23:00:00Z and at or before 2026-10-04T23:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if the maximum air temperature recorded at or near London (51.51°N, 0.13°W) does not exceed 22°C at any point during the same interval. Clarifications: - Temperature is measured as the hourly 2 m air temperature (temperature_2m); the day's maximum is derived from all hourly readings within the window. A reading of exactly 22°C does not satisfy the "Yes" condition; the temperature must be strictly greater than 22°C.
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