Below -2.00%

<think> Okay, let's tackle this. The market question is about the daily percentage change of WTI Crude Oil futures on August 4, 2026. The resolution criteria depend on the percentage change in the front-month contract's settlement price compared to the prior day, as reported by CME Group. Resolver 1 cites the Odessa American's report, which states that the settlement price on August 4 was $75.77, down $4.57 from the prior day. They mention a prior settlement of around $80.34, leading to a ~-5.7% change. They also reference other sources like Investing.com showing drops of 2.53% to 3.15% during the day, which supports a significant decline. Resolver 1 concludes the change is below -2.00%, so outcome 3. Resolver 2 provides a more structured approach. They first confirm the front-month contract on August 3 was SEP26 with a settlement of $80.34 from the CME bulletin. For August 4, they use Investing.com's data showing the price as $75.23, leading to a calculated -6.36% change. They explicitly reference the CME and Investing.com, aligning with the resolution criteria that prioritize CME but accept credible sources. Both resolvers agree on outcome 3. The key data points from CME (for August 3) and Investing.com (for August 4) are consistent. Even though the closing prices mentioned by each resolver are slightly different (75.77 vs. 75.23), both result in a percentage change well below -2.00%. The difference might be due to rounding or different reporting times, but both are below -4.8%, which is comfortably under the -2% threshold. No evidence of disagreement in the conclusion. Both use authoritative sources and their calculations support outcome 3. There's no indication the event hasn't concluded, so resolving is possible. Therefore, the final answer is 3. </think> ANSWER: Below -2.00%

Resolution criteria: - "+2.00% or above": Wins if the official daily percentage change of the front-month WTI Crude Oil futures contract (NYMEX: CL) on August 4, 2026 — calculated as ((settlement price − prior settlement price) / prior settlement price) × 100 — is greater than or equal to +2.00%, as reported by CME Group. - "0.00% to +2.00%": Wins if the daily percentage change is greater than or equal to 0.00% and strictly less than +2.00%, as reported by CME Group. - "-2.00% to 0.00%": Wins if the daily percentage change is strictly less than 0.00% and greater than or equal to -2.00%, as reported by CME Group. - "Below -2.00%": Wins if the daily percentage change is strictly less than -2.00%, as reported by CME Group. Clarifications: - "Daily % change" is defined as the percentage change from the August 3, 2026 official daily settlement price to the August 4, 2026 official daily settlement price for the nearest front-month CL contract, as published by CME Group/NYMEX. - Boundary values (exactly 0.00% and exactly -2.00%) are assigned to "0.00% to +2.00%" and "-2.00% to 0.00%" respectively, per the outcome labels.